2. Procedures and Evidence

6. CHALLENGES IN ESTABLISHING CAUSATION

Despite advancements in the evidence presented and accepted to prove causation and the procedures for establishing causation, challenges remain in legal tests for causation due to the complex nature of climate science and the indirect effects of greenhouse gas emissions. These challenges include attributing specific climate damages to overall carbon emissions, linking particular carbon emission activities to climate damage, and establishing a causal relationship between carbon emissions and specific harms.

One historical barrier in establishing causation is the "market substitution" argument, which posits that new fossil fuel projects do not result in net additional emissions due to market substitution effects. This argument suggests that rejecting a coal mine in one location will not materially affect global greenhouse gas emissions and climate change because other coal mines, resulting in equal emissions, will be developed elsewhere to meet global coal demand.

Consequently, the current requirement for plaintiffs to prove causation remains a significant obstacle in corporate climate litigation. In Australia, there is an argument that these standards may no longer be sufficient, suggesting that a viable solution would involve their re-evaluation and potential replacement, as discussed in Part 4 of Section 2.C.